Is It Safe to Buy that #35 Jersey Now?

The news that we’d all been waiting for finally broke last night: Justin Verlander has agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal to stay in the Olde English D through at least 2014 (barring a trade, which I hope doesn’t happen). I’ve certainly been wanting this for a long time. I haven’t made the rounds through the Detroit-area news sites and the Tigers bloggers, and hopefully I’m just being jaded, but I’d imagine that a good many of them are balking at the price tag. At first glance, it seems like a lot more than the $75 million the Tigers were originally offering, but once you do the math, you realize that averages out to $16 million a year instead of $15 million, and once you’re talking ridiculously high dollar amounts to begin with, what's a million more gonna hurt? (By the way, yes, I am aware that the contract is likely backloaded and the distribution of the $80 million will not be even). But be it $75 million or $80 million, it still seems like a lot. Is it too much? Probably. Will it come back to haunt them? Maybe. If it were anyone else on the team, I wouldn’t like it. But this is Verlander we’re talking about. He is the one player for whom I’m willing to make an exception. I stood by him all through his struggles in 2008 and early 2009 while others were saying really nasty things about him, and my faith was finally rewarded. This is one of those times when I want to indulge myself and be “just” a fan, so that is what I will do. Besides, in the end, baseball players are nothing more than entertainers. They would not get millions of dollars if people did not watch them. And I find Verlander to be very entertaining, so in that respect, he is doing his job.

There’s been a lot of comparison made be! tween Ve rlander’s contract and the 5-year, $78 million deal that Felix Hernandez got earlier this offseason. As it turns out, Verlander got the slightly bigger contract, which set off a discussion over which pitcher is better (or, at least, deserves the bigger contract. Jon Paul Morosi insists it’s Verlander, while Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors backs Hernandez. I’m more likely to point to the basic stuff like ERA, wins, etc. I don’t go for advanced sabremetrics like ERA+ or FIP or that sort of thing, which is what Tim Dierkes uses a lot. Morosi uses odd arguments like pitching in the postseason (when getting to the postseason relies on more than just the starting pitcher in question), All-Star appearances (which is, by nature, subjective), and no-hitters (which are more likely to happen with talented pitchers, but even in that event, there’s still a little bit of luck or randomness involved). Now, in Verlander’s defense, his 2008 season (which most believe is an aberration) elevated his numbers somewhat (I calculated last night that if you disregard 2008, his career ERA would be 3.63). I myself could not make a fair assessment, partially due to fan bias, but mostly because I don’t see Felix Hernandez that often. I can look at numbers all I want, but until I see a player extensively, I can’t get a good feel for him. The Tigers only see Hernandez a maximum of three times a season. But seriously, is there that much cause for debate when we’re talking a difference of two million dollars? I certainly don’t think so.

Jason Beck is concerned with the effect that this deal will have on the payroll. I suppose having $40 million going to only two players is somewhat irresponsible. And prior to this deal, there was a lot of talk about how much payroll was going to be freed up after 2010, and Beck writes as though that’s all gone and there’s no chance of signing any free agents. Still, he points out that the two most realistic options are to either trade Miguel Cabrera (not my preference) or let the prospects from the farm system step up when they are ready (which is actually a good idea). Cot’s Baseball Contracts has not been updated yet (since the distribution details of Verlander’s deal have not been announced), but my estimation is that the Tigers will end up with $50-$60 million committed to 2011. Even if they wanted to reduce the payroll to $90 million, that’s still a good $35 million or so to spend on free agents. Let’s be realistic: They were not going to field an entire team from the 2011 free agent class. And there’s probably still room in the 2011 payroll to make at least one big splash (Carl Crawford, perhaps, though I will reserve final judgment till after this season).

So I end with one final coda: Welcome aboard, Justin. Again.

Win or Die!!!

It worked for P Diddy back in 2004 didn’t it?

Vote or die! Good times.

So in 2005, it was “win or die trying.”

Now it’s up to the Chicago White Sox to play to save their manager.

Ozzie Guillen said it loud and said it proud. Jim Thome, you’re not needed in the south side. And I am sure I hear the sound of some Sox fans applauding. Yeah, Jim Thome, he clogs bases, he’s too slow, and he’s getting old. Let me ask you guys something. The little DH parade that Ozzie’s leading, who on that float is younger and better than Thome? I mean “younger and better” at the same time.

We talked about this last week for a little bit. Andruw Jones has not cracked .250 in the last three years. This isn’t the 90’s where Jones was a great all around player with Atlanta. No, after he left them he joined the Dodgers where his bank account and belly blew up. Mark Kotsay had a great year with the Sox last year, however he’s had back surgery like Thome and hits for average not power, something you want out of a DH. And of course there’s the all mighty Omar Vazquez who can’t play when the team is getting blown out because it would be insulting. He’s much older than Thome. (Well maybe not much). In other words, how can you have DH by committee and send Thome away, when your committee doesn’t match up? Flexibility works, but you need better players than what Ozzie has to work with.

Although I love Thome, I am not entirely opposed to sending him away AS LONG AS THERE’S ANOTHER OPTION. So far, I don’t see one. The problem with Ozzie’s plan is that he is trying to fix a house with toy tools rather than craftsman. And furthermore, isn’t Kenny the one who’s supposed to get the food, while Ozzie cooks the dinner? Kenny Williams wanted Thome back here, so shouldn’t he be back here? Since when does the manager tell the GM what he wants to do? Maybe Kenny wants Ozzie to learn a lesson about! roles. Maybe Kenny might be setting up Ozzie to take a fall, because he rocks the boat. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Let the conspiracy theory talk begin. Point being, Kenny picks the players and needs to tell Ozzie to sit down and let him do his job.

Ozzie made his decision, and now he must live with it. He let Jim Thome go, and now possibly to a divisional rival. It would make me sick to see the gentleman masher hitting balls over the wall at the Cell in a Twins or Tigers uniform. I am sure it would make you sick as well. Perhaps using him a small role here on the south side would have one, kept him off rivals teams, two, given us better offensive production, and three, kept a fan and player favorite around to keep spirits high.

So if the White Sox truly love the wizard of Oz, they need to win this year, otherwise I believe he’s a goner. This is his team. The team he wanted. The team he designed. They must perform. If this team’s record is under 500 by all star break, I think Ozzie will be done. Kenny Williams didn’t spend all this money to get guys like Jake Peavy and Alex Rios so Ozzie could fuck things up in his infinite wisdom. If Rios works out, and Q returns to form, this conversation means nothing. Sure, Ozzie’s philosophy on the DH is flawed, but if the players step up, who gives a shit about rotating DH or not?

We as Sox fans are very afraid. I think that’s why we have all this hate mongering towards Ozzie and everything. We look at his plan and see little or no sense in it. The players that you are picking over Thome are worse than Thome. Collectively or by themselves. We are going into this year gambling. Gambling that the starting pitching is going to carry the team into October. Gambling that the defense will improve. Gambling that Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, and Alex Rios will display the potential to become the players they were a couple years ago. Yes sir that Ozzie Guillen sits at the table with Doyle Brunson pushing his ch! ips all in holding a flush, ace high.

Let’s just hope that Doyle doesn’t come up with the boat, or Ozzie will be on leaving the south side.

Big Papi Send Help to Haiti

Big Papi

Dominican slugger David Ortiz, has ordered the preparation of a van with non-perishable canned foods, water, saline and gauze to be delivered to the victims of the earthquake that completely destroyed the nearby town Haiti and caused thousands of deaths and millions of people lost their homes and many relatives.

"This earthquake occurred in the neighboring country, compels us to arrange for the preparation of a van with food and medicine for the victims of devastating phenomenon. It is a way to contribute my bit to help shovel the situation being experienced by our Haitian brothers. Big Papi said journalist Leo Lopez, his representative in the country and who will coordinate the delivery.

"I want that you go directly to help the needy and so personally I'll move to the neighboring country to deliver it." Ortiz went on to say.

The quake occurred on Tuesday afternoon with more than 7.3 on the Richter scale, causing hundreds of buildings collapsed, thousands of people dead and millions homeless, left completely devastated the Haitian people and plunging him into scenes of horror and death.

"Lead agencies for the distribution of aid, have said that non-perishable canned foods, water, saline and gauze are the elements most needed at this time and why David Ortiz is once again in solidarity with a cause of pain human and tries to help mitigate "Lopez said.

It's Official: Dawson Is in Hall Of Fame

The verdict is in and Andre Dawson will be the lone inductee into baseball's Hall of Fame. It was his 9th year on the ballot and the publicity campaign worked for "The Hawk." Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven were close, but weren't able to get 75% of the votes to join Dawson.

I have been a huge fan of Andre Dawson since I was about seven years of age. When he appeared on the Cubs, I was unaware where he came from. I was very young and I only kept tabs on the Cubs since I watched them every day on WGN. It wasn't until later that I found out that he was a star in Montreal for many years. When he arrived in Chicago, he was a home run machine and the clean-up hitter that Chicago needed to finally win a pennant in 1989. He was a nice player to lineup near Ryne Sandberg, but he turned out to be much more for Chicago, since he won the NL MVP in 1987 and lead the league in home runs.

Dawson was clearly a shell of himself later in his career because he played on the very bad turf in Montreal that messed up his knees. He used to have a lot of speed and stole a lot of bases with teammate Tim Raines leading the league many seasons. The Expos were a very fast team, but after playing so many years there, players were plagued with various knee problems. The turf was basically carpet on top of cement.

I will surely be watching the induction of "The Hawk" as I did when Ryne Sandberg was inducted. When you think about the 1987 season for the Cubs, they had Dawson, Sandberg, Rafael Palmeiro, Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, and Lee Smith. They had six p! layers t hat will either be in the Hall of Fame or will be very close. It's hard to believe that the team finished last place in the NL East that year with a record of 76-85.

It was a shame that Bert Blyleven fell 5 votes of getting into the Hall of Fame. Every pitcher who gets near 300 wins, even if he had nearly as many losses, deserves to get in. He has two more years of eligibility and he should get in next season. Roberto Alomar also fell short in his first year of eligibility. He is another player that should get in and they both faired well in a year with not many stars becoming eligible. Jack Morris also saw an increase in votes, but he still has a long way to go, his name was on about 50% of the ballots.

Sox Sign Adrian Beltre, Yankees Don't Care

The Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one year deal with a second year option. The move is interesting because it basically forces a trade of Mike Lowell. Beltre is an decent player. He was a consistant 20 homerun threat when he was with the Dodgers until his walk year when he hit 48 homeruns. He then returned to his 20 homerun status once he signed with the Mariners. He's a bit of a free swinger, and doesn't like to get on base without a hit, thus the reason for his 19 walks all last season. When healthy he is a gold glove player and that should be a boost for our rivals. Does this move better the Red Sox? Well, when Mike Lowell's healthy, they're very comparable players. Beltre has a little more power, but Lowell hits for a better average. Either way, Beltre should be a decent boost for them. A game changer? No.

So far, the Sox have stabilized several positions of need. Lackey gives them a strong starter, while Cameron and Scutaro bring a veteran presence to positions that were held down by rookie's for large parts of last season. They'll be more competitive, but I'm afraid the Sox picked a rough market to improve their team in. With the contracts they're handing out right now, I wonder how much of a presence they'll have in next years market. They have several contracts that are up next year, which could free up some dough for them, but they're also losing some key players including Becket and V-Mart. Could be interesting to see how next years market shapes out.

What The Bay Deal Means To The Mets.

So Jason Bay finally decides to sign with the Mets for a deal that is 4 years and averages around 16 mil/season. And I ain't mad about it. I'm one of those who actually preferred getting Bay over Matt Holliday because he would be the cheaper option and while he hits for a lower average; everything else is about the same. Some of the positives I take from this move:

1) The OF is now set with him, Beltran and Francoeur. Last year in Boston, Bay did have a perfect fielding percentage and recorded 15 assists. Now yes, Citi is a much bigger LF than Fenway is, but this will certainly be an improvement over the adventures of Daniel Murphy or Angel Pagan out there defensively.

2) He's a legit clean-up guy that we can insert right in-between Beltran & Wright. Placing back Wright at his natural #5 slot will allow him to do what he does best, and that's to drive runs as opposed to feeling forced to get everything all at once. Bay doesn't hit for the best average (career .280) but adding someone who can get you 25-30 HR, 100-105 RBI and a career .376 OBP is what the doctor ordered.

3) I know this is simply an intangible, but Bay thrived under the pressure for playing for a big-market team for a year plus out in Boston...so that should be no problem for him.

4) While this isn't solely about Bay...to those who talk about players who are afraid to play 81 home games at Citifield remember the only reason why we were last in HRs last year is BECAUSE OF THE TEAM WE WERE FORCED TO FIELD. Did it affect the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, etc? No. How about Mark Reynolds, who decided to have a personal home run derby here? No.

The best part about this is that all the pressure is gonna be on the Phillies now to deliver as being the heavy favorites to not only win the division, but the NL as a whole. The Mets if they remain healthy this year, get Pelfrey & Ollie's heads right and continue our strong bullpen pitching from last year can keep up easily. Not making too many changes! in the roster this year might actually be a positive, as there is a better chance to build team chemistry which has been lacking the past few years. Now we need a 1B (I'm with the LaRoche idea 100%) and we should be fine.

Athletics Trade Holliday to St. Louis

Twenty-four hours ago I pondered if the Oakland Athletics would trade outfielder Matt Holliday to the San Francisco Giants.

Well, instead of sending Holliday across the Bay, the Athletics have sent him to the Gateway to the West. Holliday is now a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. In exchange for Holliday, the Cardinals gave up three minor leaguers including Brett Wallace, who was the Athletics top draft pick in 2008. Wallace could be Oakland's everyday third baseman as early as next season.

Holliday will provide protection for reigning NL MVP Albert Pujols. The Cardinals now have a power trio Pujols, Holliday and Ryan Ludwick. Holliday will supplant Rick Ankiel in left field who has struggled at the plate and hasn't been the same player since colliding head first into the outfield wall during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies in May.

The one disdvantage is that all three of these players bat right-handed. I'm surprised the Cardinals wouldn't have sought a left-handed power hitter instead. But perhaps there wasn't one readily available or who have fit into the Cardinals lineup. Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres comes to mind but he's a first baseman like Pujols and this isn't the AL so no DH (except for interleague play in AL ballparks but interleague is done for 2009.) Nonetheless, Holliday should be a good fit in the Cardinals lineup. It will be interesting to see if Holliday stays in St. Louis beyond 2009 as he is a free agent after this season.

The Cardinals currently lead the NL Central Division by not a large margin. The Chicago Cubs and the surging Houston Astros are only 1½ games back while the Milwaukee Brewers are 2½ games back. The Cardinals have the unenviable task of visiting the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies this weekend. The Phillies have been playing their best baseball of the 200! 9 season having won 11 of their last 12 games.

Whatever impact Holliday has in St. Louis, I think the San Francisco Giants missed out on an opportunity to add a right-handed power hitter. Then again sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.